Log In | Register
The situation on the Korean Peninsula has been tense for over 5 decades, but this current nuclear crisis bears special attention.
There is much speculation surrounding North Korea's current saber rattling. The recent underground nuclear explosion and the testing of three short-range missiles highlights the oft argued idea that North Korea is using nuclear weapons primarily as a political tool to begin re-establishing normal relations with the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and to end the long-standing economic embargo against it.
The threat of nuclear weapons is the only thing that has brought the U.S., Japan and South Korea into serious negotiations with North Korea, a country that cries out for respect and recognition. They now apparently want to be regarded as part of the "nuclear club".
Further to this argument is the observation that many parties have a vested interest in the claim that North Korea has nuclear weapons. For North Korea, it has been a bargaining tool for opening diplomatic discussions. North Korea has consistently used their nuclear development program as a threat in order to manipulate the West into granting foreign aid and other concessions from the West and its nearest neighbors including China and Japan. No one believes that the North would launch a first strike of nuclear weapons against the South or anyone else. But the threat that they might sell nuclear weapons to other states or non-state players is a real one.
The North Korean regime has the same goal as any regime – survival. For this reason there can be no doubt that North Korea would only attack the South as a last ditch act of retaliation. They know that an attack on South Korea would bring a furious response from South Korean and American forces, and they know what annihilation is. They know that an attack on the South would be tantamount to suicide.
But something is going on in North Korea that has not yet been publicly disclosed. It could be a power struggle.
It is known that Kim Jong Il, the North's "Dear Leader", had a stroke back in August and no one outside of his inner circle really knows what his condition is. He could be ill or somehow otherwise impaired. No one knows for sure. And, as secretive as this regime is, no one can really tell what is really happening. For that, we'll have to wait. But one thing is absolutely for sure, Kim Jong Il, at best, is unpredictable.
Kim Jong Il is 68 years old and reportedly in ill health. Apparently he has chosen his third son to be his successor. Whether there is a struggle for control of the government between his heirs, other political factions or possibly the military, or all of them, no one can be sure.
One thing is for sure though, as many issues as President Barack Obama must deal with, North Korea is one of the most complex.
The Demilitarized Zone, established as a buffer along the 38th parallel divides more than two countries; the divide separates the armies of the North and the South and over 30,000 American troops as well.
Chillingly, it also separates thousands of hidden artillery pieces which are pointed in both directions.
Seoul, South Korea's capital is less than 40 miles south of the DMZ, well within range of the North's arsenal. If hostilities were to break out it would surely create a lashing out by North Korea's ill-equipped but large and fanatical military across the DMZ. North Korea deploys more than 1 million soldiers near the DMZ, and its 11,000 long-range artillery pieces hidden nearby could rain destruction on the South Korean city of Seoul only 40 miles away. Seoul is both the political and economic capital of South Korea and home to one fifth of the South Korean population.
The "greater" Seoul area, as of 2007, had a population of nearly 25 million people, all within range of the North's arsenal of long-range artillery.
For years the North has suffered from famine and shortages of everything including fuel and equipment for its army. But in spite of these chronic shortages the forces of North Korea would inflict massive destruction upon the South using their conventional weapons alone. While the North's arsenal would surely be taken out within two or three days, and the North's highly trained commandos hunted down and killed, millions of South Korean's would be killed and horrendous levels of devastation would rain down upon South Korea's major cities before the North could be stopped. Millions would die.
The goal of The United States, South Korea and China which shares a nearly 900 mile border with North Korea, is maintenance of the status quo.
It must be remembered that the divide between the North and the South is a political line that has divided Korean families for 55 years. Since the end of the war in 1953 mothers and fathers have been separated from their children and brothers and sisters divided from their siblings. There is a longing on the part of all of these people for unification.
But the South Korean's learned an important lesson from the unification of East and West Germany. The German economy was hit hard as the GDP of the East was much smaller than the West's. The German economy is still suffering the consequences. The disparity between the economies and cultures of North and South Korea are of a vastly greater magnitude.
The South Korean's want an orderly unification taking place over decades in order to develop the North's economy and to create social order. A sudden collapse of the North Korean regime would be devastating.
Imagine the predicament of the South Korean people. Suddenly millions of refugees would want to pour into the south and the south would have to stop them. Millions of refugees stacked up on the border would create a terrible moral conflict for the Korean people.
Food and medical aid would cost billions. Housing would become a critical issue as Korea's winters are long and harsh as our troops found out in the early 1950's.
China would be faced with two issues that they don't want to have to deal with. First, millions of refugees would crowd their borders as well and, two, the Chinese would be faced with the prospect of the American military on their borders. In that regard North Korea currently acts as a buffer.
The United States, China, South Korea and Japan can probably tolerate a nuclear armed North Korea as long as it remains stable and agrees not to sell weapons, weapons grade plutonium or other components of a nuclear weapon. A mechanism for containment and inspection would be an absolute necessity.
North Korea might also be bribed as it is also time to begin to help develop the North Korean economy, a task that is strategically important to, and could be shared by, the United States, China, South Korea and Japan, Russia and the rest of the world.
North Korea must be brought in from the cold. Helping them to develop economically is the way to do it.
